Japan Opens ¥1,700 Trillion Vault

Anti-Fragile Stock Selection in Japanese Equities

Published March 2026 • 29 pages

When ¥1,700 trillion in household and corporate savings mobilizes into a ¥1,300 trillion equity market, opportunity lies in stock selection. Analysis of negative real rates, extreme yen undervaluation via Big Mac Index, and forced capital deployment through METI/TSE reforms.

Key findings: 46% yen undervaluation • BOJ negative real rates forcing capital reallocation • Three asymmetric upside scenarios • Stock screening framework

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Markel Group: An Undervalued Compounder

A 50% Probability of Underwriting Failure Still Yields a 30% Margin of Safety

Published March 2026 • 26 pages

Markel (MKL) has an estimated intrinsic value of ~$2,773 - a significant margin of safety above the recent share price. The market undervalues disciplined underwriting (mid-90s combined ratios), 1:1 float to equity leverage, as well as high ROE private and public equity holdings because it assumes that social inflation will continue unabated. We take that assumption and run with it. In doing so, we posit that the current share price already discounts a worse outcome than Markel’s underwriting engine being completely impaired for many years to come. The power of the other two engines - the compounding machines of their private and public equity holdings - are being completely mispriced.

Key findings: Three-engine compounding • Insurance float levered 1:1 to equity • True Economic Book Value of 1.0x current share price

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