Independent Thinking
I’m a retired engineer applying multidisciplinary frameworks to identify where consensus may drift from underlying reality.
Latest Research
Japan Opens ¥1,700 Trillion Vault
Anti-Fragile Stock Selection in Japanese Equities
When ¥1,700 trillion mobilizes into a ¥1,300 trillion market, opportunity lies in stock selection. Analysis of negative real rates, 46% yen undervaluation, and forced capital deployment.
Markel Group: An Undervalued Compounder
A 50% Probability of Underwriting Failure Still Yields a 30% Margin of Safety
Three independent valuation methods — True Economic Book Value ($1,942), Static Intrinsic Value ($2,445), and probability-weighted NPV ($2,773) — converge on the same conclusion. The market offers meaningful downside protection even assuming zero future growth.